The result is not a deterministic
Dec 31, 2023 9:35:46 GMT
Post by account_disabled on Dec 31, 2023 9:35:46 GMT
To reliably predict the occurrence of instabilities ensemble prediction systems must be developed where individual ensemble members differ in the representation of the uncertain parts of the system. but a probabilistic forecast of the instability. Whether it is worth taking precautionary action in the light of such a forecast will then depend on the cost of action the unmitigated damage caused by the instability and on the forecast probability of occurrence of the event. If the first is small enough or the last two large enough then it will be worth it.
Read more about the tricks you can use to navigate uncertainty. Ensemble prediction has become a fairly mature field in weather and climate prediction has accelerated in disease modelling due to Covid and is Mobile App Development Serviceslowly evolving as a field in economics and conflict prediction due to the development of agentbased models. Perhaps in future years the Whoa Where did that come from reaction as another intermittent instability hits us from one of a number of different possible directions may be heard less often.
Tim Palmer is a professor of climate physics at the University of Oxford and pioneered the development of probabilistic ensemble forecasting techniques for weather and climate prediction. Join one million Future fans by liking us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter or Instagram. If you liked this story sign up for the weekly bbc.com features newsletter called The Essential List a handpicked selection of stories from BBC Future Culture Worklife Travel and Reel delivered to your inbox every Friday.
Read more about the tricks you can use to navigate uncertainty. Ensemble prediction has become a fairly mature field in weather and climate prediction has accelerated in disease modelling due to Covid and is Mobile App Development Serviceslowly evolving as a field in economics and conflict prediction due to the development of agentbased models. Perhaps in future years the Whoa Where did that come from reaction as another intermittent instability hits us from one of a number of different possible directions may be heard less often.
Tim Palmer is a professor of climate physics at the University of Oxford and pioneered the development of probabilistic ensemble forecasting techniques for weather and climate prediction. Join one million Future fans by liking us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter or Instagram. If you liked this story sign up for the weekly bbc.com features newsletter called The Essential List a handpicked selection of stories from BBC Future Culture Worklife Travel and Reel delivered to your inbox every Friday.